tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC May 2, 2013 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
>> thanks so much. right to the wall with four hours to go until this close and see where we stand at the lunch hour. the dow jones industrials having a great day, up 121 points. here's what we're following on the half. golden eye is the precious metal -- about face. facebook earnings are in, the stock is moving higher. is the company finding its mojo and should you buy in? first, our top story and that is the rally's next stop. stocks are rebounding nicely today. the big news of this day, the ecb cutting interest rating with mario drag gi pledging to do more. mike murphy, is it enough to
keep the rally moving? >> the tape doesn't lie here, scott. everybody wants dragy to cut rates. he did what was widely expected. if he didn't, i think we'd be having a much different discussion. we got what we needed out of draghi today. >> is this enough to keep the rally going? >> it is. and i think you have to look at the markets right now and understand that for all the monetary policy actions you see here in the u.s. and japan and europe, there are consequences and there are social consequences that we may not like and then there's the market consequences. you have the s&p higher, you have commodities higher. you have the u.s. dollar higher. across the board, the only thing that's not higher today really is what should not be higher and that's the japanese yen.
the euro and the vix and natural gas. i bought natural gas. >> you're not convinced that now's necessarily the time to buy this rally because you've got to jobs report tomorrow. >> yeah, but i am long the market. i did add to some positions, unfortunately, they're positions that were a little beaten up. i just look for an opportunity. if the jobs number's good, look ahead. if it's bad -- not only do we have draghi cut rates, but he said he'll do more. we had the fed come out yesterday, they said they'd do more, so you just can't fight this tide of liquidity and with housing prices going up and auto sales doing well, those, two me, are the pillars of growth in the u.s. and i think you'll continue to see the markets move. >> anthony is here with us again. you've said all along it's a liquidity driven rally.
gas is being pressed more. >> hit iting him with everythin they can hit him with. it's like a performance enhancing drug on an athlete. there will be side effects to what they're doing. we're seeing that in food and energy prices. i'm going to take the other side of these guys today in the short-term because after the announcement that the fed made yesterday, stocks didn't move too much, they're up today because of the draghi thing, but i do believe in short time, we could see a correction here becaall this stuff is now being feathered into the market. not to say that by the end of the day, the stocks aren't going to be up, because you are krek. but there will be pauses. >> what looks attractive to you guys on the desk today? the highs of the day as we come on the air, technology is the leadership, putting together a couple of back-to-back decent days here. industrials having a good day as well. we like tech? >> i think tech is a place that i've stayed with ibm throughout
what was perceived to be horrible earningings in a massive selloff. it's come back again, but i think it's more adding to existing positions and staying long the overall index itself. i mentioned before i bought natural gas, one of the few things that i've done today and i believe the sell off we're seeing in natural gas should be viewed as an opportunity. >> what about what's going on in commodities in general? what one trader said yesterday was a dead cat bounce, but we've had a bounce. not yesterday, we gave a little bit back. >> we've had a significant bounce. in fact in the last 20 minutes, the price of oil is up in essence over a dollar. i would say that commodities right now are moving to a sideways type of pattern. they sold off significantly. you're seeing the rebound. generally, what tends to happen is that it will move in a sidew sideways patter. >> how about the best performing stocks as we come on the air today?
expedia, visa, partly on earnings. >> they have worked, they continue to work and then you saw the quarterly results from the visa and they were as good as people needed and even better. so you're seeing money. i think what you're getting here is not a rotation out of the market or from bonds to stocks or vice versa. you're seeing a rotation. within the market to sectors that have been working. now, i think you're going to see some money coming in to areas like tech that have underperformed in certain ways and you can see rallies there, also. >> well now that the traders have weighed in, let's go to europe and bring in gemma, live in london. nice to see you again. >> thank you very much. >> well, draghi said he was going to do whatever it took and he finally put action to those words. is it enough to keep the global rally going? >> now, it isn't. there's a crucial difference on what's going on in policy, the potential the markets have
misunderstood. that's follow through. you are seeing signs in the wider economy. you're seeing the housing market stabilize, stabilization in jobs market. where as in europe, the situation continues to be dire. until we see that follow through, something like a rates cut is going to have a limited impact. they're not going to be boosting lending to indebted households and companies that are struggling and that is what we need to see and what draghi is trying to allude to. but at this stage, it's just words. >> looks to be enough to keep the u.s. market moving higher. >> well, i mean, it's the sign of optimism. the reason why the markets are taking positively is they're taking it at a sign of life. they see the road and the step towards growth, however, we haven't yet seen that. this is again focusing on liquidity, focusing on sentiment. focusing on what's actually happening in the economy.
the european economy has started to deteriorate to such an extent that now germany is being impacted. >> well, i don't know that the markets necessarily taking it as keeping europe growing. maybe it's just a sign that the market's taking it as europe not getting any worse. fr >> but it's still so incredibly fragile that we need to see more. what we're not seeing is a way for these countries to be able to grow out. because when we've got 50% in spain, that is a substantial, to enable these countries to grow their way out. and again, greater confidence and sentiment for longer term
substantial. >> lending in europe, needing lending to small businesses to get things moving. wasn't that an important part of what draghi said this morning, to do what you're talking about, to get the economy move something. >> exactly. it is why they're recognized amongst the politicians that that is the next thing, that that is what is needed, but we haven't seen it. yes, they may have cut the rates, but it's getting stuck at the banks. they're saying thank you very much for lowering borrowing costs, but we're not going to be passing this on and therefore, more needs to be done. they need more schemes and that's what we would look to. >> what are the greatest opportunities right now within the market? what would you be a buyer of today given the news of the day? >> i mean, given the news, we try to tend to not be so short-term, but i would see there would be a short-term
positive support for banks because that's really where the impact is going to be seen. it's going to be absorbed in by the banks and not necessarily passed on and one area to potentially be aware of is actually exporters because instead of the rate cut, easing the outward pressure on the euro and therefore, making their goods more competitive. it means that actually the euro would maintain that pressure upwards. and margins could remain under pressure. we do try and maintain the longer horizon. >> great to have you on the show. right to the market flash desk right now for what's moving right now. doc? >> check out visa, which is charging higher today. second quarter beat the street, raised score cast for the fiscal gear. analysts telling me other trends, the volume in april,
specifically u.s. volume, also, debit volume. visa renewed a contract with jpmorg jpmorgan. back to you. >> traders, you got something on visa? >> i love the stock long-term and you see they're moving into mobile. watch the next generation of technology all embrace visa, paypal, things like that. >> joe, i know you've liked visa and mastercard, right? >> yes, i think visa will get above $200. a lot of things in the last couple of years have been perceived to be negative. the earnings continue to be recorded in a positive capacity and i think it's indicative of the conversation around the market itself. you my think things are not good, but yet the market keeps going up. i like american express. >> axp is at a new high.
>> yes, here's the deal. visa came out, they raised their guidance in terms of growth to 20% from teens. mid to high teens. plus, you've got a secular move in credit cards. it's no longer putting down $2 for a cup of coffee. it's putting the credit card down. however, mastercard's metric, they're growth is not as strong, so i own visa and i believe they're going to go for price and market share. >> murph, quick play. >> american express and i would not chase visa. >> but you would chase american express. >> on visa, it's a picture perfect chart and today's move is getting out of its range. it should hold back down to a level in the 160 range. >> there's a new high by the way for axp. meantime, the rebound in housing is proving to be a big opportunity for some hunlg fund and private equity funds that are buying up properties in large numbers. one in particular we're talking
about today. kayla joins us now with the details on black stone. >> a lot of firms are buying up properties, but blackstone has gone sr, partnering with a property manager. a portfolio of single family homes in heavily distressed areas.like others, could buy up properties on a national scale. that is just what they've done. one year, 25,000 homes, four and a half billion dollars later, the firm has become to quote steve schwartzman on cnbc the other day, the biggest buyer of single family homes in america. they're doing the heaviest buying in the hardest hit areas in the crisis. california, phoenix, florida, las vegas. last week alone, they closed on 1400 properties in atlanta, georgia. now, the strategy is not without its critics. would be homeowners say the cash
reached investors are buying them out of the market driving up prices in major markets. on average, up 10.5% in the last year. but they're still buying in what greg has deemeded a two-year window for these newly foreclosed properties. no word on how much they'll spend in total, but the plan is to build the national single family rental platform and to take it public as soon as 2014. >> it's an interesting twist on that kind of investment. not the first. we've had tom sit in here talking to us about what his firm has done. >> i love this. if you could remember blackstone in the early '90s, they did something almost exactly like this. they're almost reverse engineering mortgage-backed securities. we've been long that market the last three or four years. i think it's a brilliant play. there's other ways to play it. mutual funds or in the hedge funds space like a pine river, a
meta capital. housing prices are going up. no question about it and blackstone is on the contrary yan side soaking up supply. >> i don't know if they're on the contrary side. every single one of those markets is in. he said he's having a tough time finding value there. so, it's a very crowded trade. >> compared to what private equity does, you're building a whole company from the ground up, cobbling together a bunch of little properties. >> you're actually buying small companies. putting it together. so you're building them up and becoming public. >> yep. indeed. coming up, some of the biggest names in mutual funds are meeting today in d.c. and cnbc is there live. how about $200 billion worth of investing advice? we're going to talk to the head of charles schaub, plus, facebook is trading higher
following its much anticipated earnings report, but will it ever see its ipo glory days aga again? we're going to ask the man they call the dean of valuation. that's coming up on the half. a confident retirement. those dreams have taken a beating lately. but no way we're going to let them die. ♪ ameriprise advisors can help keep your dreams alive like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. and that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪
often give an opportunity to buy on pullbacks -- a nice dividend. the quarter these guys put up, this is the name you want to own. makes it a great long-term hold. >> what's interesting, just talk about this for a moment is a move in a company like this where pc sales were declining at such a rapid pace, i bet a lot of people viewed this move as thinking it was going to be a negative quarter. >> without a doubt. it's component manufacturer, it's had a change in history in terms of supply and demand. so i'm not a buyer into it. i think they're yoerwise playing. >> next up is yelp reporting a larger than expected loss. >> large move higher. i think it continues, pushes towards $35. this is a company using emotional incredibly well. it's integrated into the ios platform, business users, they
have the tail wind behind it. >> aig, a stock getting a pop today ahead of its earnings report. that's a pretty good looking move ahead of it. >> it is and it's trading on what's happening in the property casual space. aig had a good quarter and the others have as well. this is a very good story. >> some of the mutual fund industries are gathering down in washington, d.c. today for their annual meeting. tyler mathson is there and joins us now with a special guest. >> this is the place where $13.7 trillion of your money is represented. the mutual fund business. much of it is is in retirement accounts and one of the biggest players in that business is charles marie is the
president and ceo of that company. you are a $200 billion woman, actually. i've never sat across from one. that is a total amount of money that you are a steward of. money is coming in in a big way. where is it going? more equity today? more fixed income? where? >> one of the things we saw this year was an uptick in equity flows. it was coming from money funds and moving into equities. they were taking money out of cash and putting it in -- >> they were much more optimistic in some of the surveys. active trader forum, people more optimistic about stocks, they think u.s. market is the place to be. usually, that's something i want to go the other way. how are you advising people? >> well, certainly, the market has had a really good run, but there have been sectors of the market -- i think there's still
places to put money to work. >> let's talk about those moneying funds from which money seems to be flowing. something like $150 million in fees in just the first quarter because the interest rates on those money funds are so low. what kind of a drain is that on a schaub incorporated, your business and how long can you keep doing that? >> the reality is my funds are really poor investment -- money funds are a key vehicle for that. we still make some money on our money funds. >> how? >> there's still a little bit there to make, but we have waving substantial fees. raises interest rates and we'll begin to make money. >> what would happen if you didn't wave those fees? what would happen to me as a shareholder in a money fund? would i be paying you to hold my
money? >> you would be paying. >> you're afraid of that. >> that's why we waive it. we want to make sure investors get some little bit of return. >> i mentioned $150 million in just the first quarter. there's been a big drain over time. is it a loss leader then? >> well, it definitely isn't as profitable as it was before, but schaub overall is a huge business and we have a lot of different products that we offer to client, where as this isn't making as much must be, there are other products we have. >> the nature of your business, some of these accounts are separate. how does the money come to you you're advising -- >> it comes from our advisory network, that's a source. it also comes from self-directive investors. we also have a 401(k) business. >> talk about schaub the
company, started the business as an alternative way to trade stocks with lower than average commissions. that's still a part of schaub's business, but it is by no means the lion's share anymore. asset management and the fees that you derive from that is a bigger and will probably be, remain a bigger slice of the pie going forward. >> yeah, one of the things that chuck wanted to do was to marketize investing. and i think that although it was originally in stocks, mutual funds became an important part of that. mutual funds are a great way for investors to get a portfolio at an inexpensive price. >> very quickly, the last couple of week, you've had a couple of incursions into the schaub computer system. can you assure the clients that none of their accounts were
tampered with? >> it wasn't an incursion into our systems. it was a blockage. not denial of service attack where none of our clients' information was compromised, but it's one of those situations where a third party is bombarding our website with a lot of traffic and not allowing our clients to use the website. >> sign of the times. >> the people before us and i'm sure there will be a lot after us, too. >> thank you so much for being with us. scotty, back to you. >> thanks so much. appreciate that very much. how about this? twitter has a new tweeter. warren buffett. is officially now on twitter. we want to show you his first tweet. here's what he said. warren is in the house. so mr. buffett is now tweeting. he has 1262 followers. i'm sure in the last couple of seconds though, that number has jumped much higher than that. and by the way, becky quick is going to be in the house
tomorrow on "squawk box." warren's going to be talking with becky after the annual meeting there, so we're very excite excited there. i hope you tune in in the morning to hear from mr. buffett. coming up, it's been a rough year for gold bugs. precious metal has fallen 12% in 2013, but gaining some momentum today. has gold finally bottomed? a managing director with more than 30 years experience is going to make a bold call. and general motors, quarterly profit falling 14%, so are the roadblocks for gm a reason to get short? traders are going to debate that when we come back. ♪ ♪
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traded yesterday. that might not be heavy for apple, but this one only averages about 240 contracts a day, so that's very strong. today, it's close to 21,000 calls. we've called the company to try to find out if they've indeed pulled out of a conference, an energy conference offshore they were supposed to be speaking out. we know that jana partners is involved because they declared that. they're a big value investor and they more or less get involved when they think there could be an event. so does that mean there's something going on here? obviously, a lot of people are betting on that and that's why it's moved so big, so fast. i'm thinking that something could be going on in ois and that's why full disclosure we're long the stock and options. >> thanks for the call in. dave did not return a call for comment on what dr. jay was reporting. from oil to gold. and it's been a wild ride for gold lately. the metal rebounding nicely, but is the worst now over?
jim of tangent capital is is here. that was a crazy run. >> in the short run, the technicals can dominate. beginning around april 5th there was a negative research report. a negative report from goldman got a lot more attention, then the cyprus overhang, but after that, it was just april 15th, i don't care if it was gold or soybeans or pork belly, panic is panic. even the strong hands like china who had 50-50, i'm a buyer, so why don't i see how high it's going to go? that has now been rung out. there's a transition from weak hands to strong hands. traders who have margin calls and hedge funds that have nonpermanent capital and mark to market.
they're all rung out now. the strong hands are russia, china and actually people around the world. they line d up to buy physical beginning on april 16th, so we're back up 10%. so i think the technicals have been wrung out and the trend is high higher from here. >> the central bankers presumably believe there's a ton of eflation in the global economy. >> the 1930s were the grandest period of sustained inflation. gold went up 65%. the problem is when central banks fear deflation more than anything, they try anything. currency wars, money printing, zero interest rate policy, forward guidance. they do everything they can. when they can't win the battle against inflation, they devalue against gold because gold's the only thing they can't fight back. if deflation prevails, gold's $4,000 an ounce, 39.95.
the seller, 40.50 and we're just going to make market. >> i think it's actually going to go sideways for most of the rest of this year. i think it will go up to the end of the year and some seasonal factors. inflation's coming with a lag. it's really been a long haul for the fed. they got their stock bubble in the housing bubble. >> the question is how long is the lag? >> well, it's been four years at this point. it will -- >> $64,000 question. even understated about gold and other assets. >> the fed only has two choices. they can throw in the towel, say we've tried everything, it doesn't work. congress, you go fix it. or they can double down. my feeling, they're going to double down. janet yellin, she's more of a double down. >> the average american can refinance their house, they're not going to see the expansion orvel velocity. the average american has not
been able to refinance their house. >> i want to move off of gold for a second. the euro because you have an opinion there and presumably this note of yours was written before draghi's action. i think this will continue. you change that now because of what happened in europe? >> no, i was out a year and a half ago saying the same thing. about a year ago, hair was on fire, euro's falling apart. it's nonsense. it's a political project, not an economic project and the political will is there number one. you've got three things going on. german technology, good business climate in germany and finally, chinese capital. capital flows dominate trade flows. china has wanted to invest in europe in a big way, but they want to see europe get their act together. of course, the chinese want to get out of dollars. at the margin, dollars.
technology from germany, china's capital. sort of a singapore -- you're going to see a lot -- it's happening a lot. >> you're in an environment where everybody seemingly is trying to -- everybody wants their currency to go lower so they become more competitive in the global economy. >> the thing about cross rates, the fed wants a weaker dollar, so you have to have a stronger euro. how can the -- mathematically. >> it's like talking to two different guys. on one hand, you're saying that rates are coming down and the second deepest currency in the world is getting stronger. yet on the other side sh wait, it's inflation and gold's going to do better. i would say that the reason gold is where it is is because all these we cans are still in there. in terms of dollar amount, it looks like a lot. in terms of percentage drops, it's not relative. >> i got to make this last point. >> earlier -- 20% yen because
the yen was getting weaker. you have the same phenomenon in europe. >> appreciate you coming in. >> thanks. >> let's head to the pits now and see what traders have to say on gold and where it could go next and jackie deangeles is going to tell us. >> some of the reason gold's getting a nice boost today off the ecb cut and draghi's very defish comments. want to bring it out to anthony at the nymex. >> draghi, where they made the rate cut, gold barely moved. it was the comment about negative rates for bank dmoz its that got the gold market moving. what we're seeing today is a hunlg against tomorrow's jobs number. if we have a bad jobs number for tomorrow, you're going to want old gold. >> how important is the $1500
level and is that the next near term stock for gold? >> i think the fundamental story for gold has significantly changed today with the comments by the ecb. i think they're taking the whole notion of currency wars. that might be a dramatic way to categorize it, but each bank seems to be taking further and bigger steps. to me, it's kind of a big issue. if the market agrees with me, then gold will trade over 1480 and feel comfortable there. if that's the case, i believe that case might be over as well and i will believe the bottom's put in. >> that's how how our guys are looking at gold. what about you? vote on futures now. we'll give you those results on our online show and gold bugs definitely logon today because we have one of the portfolio managers. he's going to tell us why you have to buy gold now. today, 1:00 p.m. eastern. >> thanks so much. see you at the top of the hour. next up on the half, however,
shares of gm are gaining speed, earnings topping wall street estimates, but are there red flags in the numbers? we're going to debate it and dive into facebook's results. investors seem to be cheering the numbers, but many questions remain. most importantly, what is the right valuation for the stock? he's going to do the math and tell you what the stock is really worth. the facebook trade and this trade school coming back in a moment. ♪
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but showed a 14% drop from a year ago. is it a good number or not? mike murphy's the bull. anthony is our bear. 90 seconds are on the clock and mr. murphy's up first. >> it's a great number. beat expectations on eps and everybody knows the north america market is strong. what we didn't know was that europe was starting to see a rebound. for the first time in two years, i think that's the biggest positive. >> it's heavily owned by a hedge fund community, so smart money's in the name. number one, the pension liabilities there are gigantic. two, they're having design problems with their suvs. that demand is going to contract on them. and lastly, i think the europe stuff is overstated for gm.
>> so regarding the suvs, they came up with a new line of pick-up trucks going after ford's -- i didn't listen to the whole thing. >> i like the pick-up truck market. >> our world is in this stock. >> the flow, 10% of the flow is short and when you look over at europe, they're cutting down plants over there so that's going to help them in the near term. >> this is still a health care company that makes cars on the side. joe, what made the more compelling argument? >> i think mike did.
clearly, fundamentally and technically, you're seeing a lot of positive momentum. i understand some of the issues anthony's bringing forth, but they've been known to the market over the last 18 months, they've been out there. >> tell us who you think won the debate. tweet us, we will as we always do, give you the results at the epd of the show. you okay? you may win. >> hee he need to stay in the game. >> could someone pass me a tissue, please? >> next up, we're going to dive into facebook's results. many questions still remain. most importantly, what is the right valuation? we are going to do the math with the nyu professor right there. he's known as the dean f valuations, so he's got the answers when we come back. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused.
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>> which is why we're looking so far ward to it in about 14 minutes. facebook shares higher today, but is it enough to keep the stock climbing? let's ask a man considered to be the dean of valuation. he is nyu professor damoradan. great to see you as always. >> i was afraid you were going to ask me where gold has gone. >> let's start with facebook. where's the right place for the stock to be trading? >> i think the best news that came out yesterday was that it was boring and that might sound weird, but i'd rather have a stock be boring at this stage of its life than do exciting things. i think when i looked at the earnings report and look at the revenue and earnings, the news i took away from it was that we understand the company better today than we did three months ago, six months ago. i went back and looked at my valuation about a year ago and looked at the projected revenues and they're pretty much on top.
so in spite of the roller coaster we've been on these last few months, the company still looks pretty much the way it did a year ago with a little more formation to it. >> let's take a look at what the stock is doing. we follow it, try and see if it's ever going to get back to this ipo price. you see it now, $28.5. you think it's fairly valued right where it is right now. you take -- better than expected, they seem to be finding their mobile mojo if you will? >> i think in a sense, they had to survive. i would have viewed anything which was not that number to be a bad happy to see it climb. i'm not sure how much above expectation it was. so i think they're doing what they need to do. there's still work that needs to be done, but the value i see for the company has pretty much been
stable for the last six, seven, eighty months. i was here six months ago, the stock had dropped to 18. i felt it was fill worth 26 or 27 then and i think it's about that value now as well. >> so, you haven't seen enough from yesterday's report to make you want to be a buyer of more shares? that i guess is the bottom line when it comes to you and the valuation that you see. >> technically, i'm already a buyer because i bought the stock at 18.5. i'm happy i bought it at 18.5, but i'm not loading up 1,000 more shares or 10,000 more shares at the price today because i don't see it as a bargain at 28.5. >> hey, professor, we're long facebook here. when you bought the stock at 18.5 six months or so ago and since that time, you've gotten one thing that i think is going to be big for facebook. the home page. do you think that's enough to increase the potential value of the company? >> it could and that's what i said. we understand more about how this company is going to work in the future because if you looked
at the original value, it was based on the presumption they would become a google like company and they did not have the pieces in place to do that. what i've seen over the last year is they're getting the pieces in place. not to >> a lot is going on, certainly, with the company and the prospects of moving forward and what they will be. will you buy more here? what do you think is going to happen? >> i'm always careful about doubling down on my bets.
. >> now the moment we have all been waiting for. not so fast mr. murphy. our traders are quick but they're not always right. mike has made a couple of bullish calls. >> we bought the name today. >> top t out a day or two after that last segment aired. really short fast drop down to the $21 range. we're still in the position.
of our halftime reports next wednesday and thursday. so warren has some work to do. "pow er "power" starts now. >> this is a special edition of power lench. in 30 minutes we will be live and exclusive with goldman sachs chairman and ceo. we're devoting the first part of this hour to this question. did the fed and central bankers in europe just extend this bull run for stocks and how can you profit from it? power lunch starts right now. >> indeed it does. hi, everybody. tiler is live at a key investment